Catalog of public COVID modelsThis is a catalog of various public models for COVID-19. This catalog is especially concerned with models which have good coverage for California and its counties. Reproduction Number (Nowcasts)These are models of \(R_t\) the time-varying reproduction number, which is the average number of people infected by an individual. An \(R_t>1\) indicates the disease is spreading, whereas \(R_t<1\) indicates the disease is dying out.
Some other \(R_t\) resources
Forecasts of Epidemological OutcomesThese are forecasts of deaths, infections, reported cases, hospitalizations an other related epidemiological outcomes. These are mostly compartmental models, such as SIR, SIER and variations. Sometimes this type of model is called a “mechanistic model” because it simulates a mechanism of disease transmission. A few of the models below are more akin to statistical extrapolation, without an underlying model of disease dynamics. Reichlab EnsembleThe Reichlab at University of Massacheusettes Amherst has created covid19forecastinghub.org. This is a repository where many forecasters to submit their forecasts in a standard format, to faciliate easy comparison. The forecasts are near-term estimates of deaths at the state and national level. Some forecasters submit quantiles as well. Other epidemiological measures such as cases or hospitalizations are not included in the Reichlab ensemble. Previous forecasts can be found at zoltardata.com. Youyang Gu periodically evaluates the historical performance of the various forecasts. Agent-based modelsRather than modeling the dynamics of various groups (susceptible / infectious / recovered), agent-based models simulate specific individuals. This allows for very detailed models of particular interactions. Below are some software frameworks for doing agent-based modeling.
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