Ryan McCorvie
Mathematician and statistician based in Oakland, California. I work at the intersection of probability theory, machine learning, and AI. Previously Goldman Sachs quant; PhD studies at UC Berkeley.
Recent
CalCAT paper published in Frontiers in Public Health. Describes the technical and organizational design of California's long-running COVID forecast aggregation dashboard, which I helped build and maintain. Read →
Joined a working group formalizing stochastic calculus — specifically Itô's lemma — in Lean, the interactive theorem prover. Also attending a weekly Lean meetup and occasional conferences on formal verification.
Introducing Elo on the Dohyo — I applied Elo ratings to sumo wrestling to see how they compare with official banzuke rankings and tournament results. Includes match-by-match forecasts and historical analysis. Read → Forecasts → Code →
Built a clone of the LinkedIn geometric deduction puzzle game Queens, including a level editor. A fun exercise in constraint-satisfaction algorithms and browser-based UI. Play →
Co-authored analysis of risk tradeoffs in COVID testing policy for schools, done with colleagues at the CA Dept of Public Health and UCSF, published in IJERPH. Paper →
Co-authored analysis of racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 exposure, testing, and case rates in California, with colleagues at CDPH and Stanford. Published in Health Affairs. Paper →
Solutions to problem sets from graduate probability courses, including David Williams' Probability with Martingales and Terence Tao's Math 275A. These get a surprising amount of traffic from probability students. Browse →
